The market, as it usually does, has fooled everybody. We are reminded of Humphrey Neill’s potent advice: “When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.” Trends change before the masses take notice. 

Neill’s approach, as articulated back in 1954 with The Art of Contrary Thinking, throws our mind in directions that are opposite of obvious, promising to make us wiser. The unknown stretches before us, and contrary opinons, as he puts it, are “thoughts before leaping” to prevent “jumps before concluding.”

Contrarian theory is not a system for definitive forecasting, however. The ups and downs of the market are not predictable as to extent or duration. Instead, it is a method for anticipating multiple scenario

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